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Policy Brief
Extreme weather events and rising sea levels are having an increasing impact on human mobility, especially within specific countries. In 2022, for example, there were 32.6 million disaster-induced displacements around the world, the highest figure seen in a decade, and 70 percent of these took place in Asia Pacific regions. Policy actors need to anticipate and prepare for future human mobility patterns exacerbated by the effects of climate change to ensure that those who move have their human rights protected and can contribute meaningfully to the communities in which they arrive. Knowing how to anticipate, invest and act on these futures now and needing to react to immediate priorities is, however, challenging.
This policy brief outlines the promise of an anticipatory policy design approach that blends predictive analytics with qualitative foresight to provide the data and space that stakeholders need to effectively adapt and anticipate such events. The approach is introduced here as part of an initiative to analyse the scale and effects of migration to Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam and Karachi, Pakistan by 2050 as a result of the effects of climate change.
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ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Ms. Sophia Robele is a Consultant with the UNDP SDG Integration team. She coordinates capability building and learning infrastructure for “awareness-based” collective action, to help development practitioners engage with the inner and relational dimensions of systems transformation for the SDGs. Previously, as a Foresight Specialist with the UNDP Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific, she supported the design and development of efforts to embed anticipation, long-term thinking and imagination into UNDP’s decision-making processes and offers to governments. With nearly a decade in the UN system, her past work has spanned numerous development areas, from food security to health systems, with a cross-cutting emphasis on advancing structural change. She is interested in the nexus between social innovation and equity, particularly through systemic design.
Ms. Aarathi Krishnan Ms. Aarathi Krishnan specializes in Risk and Decision Intelligence. She is an experienced international aid expert, with almost two decades working directly in fragile, crisis contexts, as well as working with senior decision makers across governments, the UN system and international organizations on all aspects of risk intelligence, foresight, strategy, and governance. Her work has always pushed the boundaries of what is possible, and her published work is known to be standard setting - and incorporated in the pedagogy of the United Nations System Staff College (UNSSC), International Committee of the Red Cross Red Crescent (ICRC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), Brandeis University and Cornell Tech.
Aarathi has been published widely, and is a sought after expert public speaker. Her TED talk has been viewed more than 1.6 million times by TED viewers and translated into five different languages beyond English. She has been featured by Fast Company, The Saturday Paper Australia, ABC Radio Australia, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies amongst many others. Aarathi has advised governments from Bhutan, Maldives, Cambodia, Botswana, and many more. She is a trusted advisor for philanthropic organizations and think tanks, including the World Economic Forum.
In addition, she is currently an Affiliate with the Cambridge Centre of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge and has previously been a dual Technology and Human Rights Fellow at the Berkman Klein Centre for Internet and Society at Harvard University as well as a 2020-21 and 2021-22 Technology and Human Rights Fellow at the Harvard Carr Centre for Technology and Human Rights.
Mr. Sebastian Boll
Mr. George May works with UNDP’s Recovery Solutions and Human Mobility team coordinating regional programming and supporting UNDP country offices in applying development approaches to migration and displacement, and operationalising the Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus in fragile and crisis settings. George previously worked with projects to promote regional cooperation on labour migration, migrant exploitation, and human trafficking in Southeast Asia. George has a passion for qualitative and mixed methods research design, developed through research on migration/ displacement, migrant exploitation, human (in)security, and fragility/stabilisation undertaken during graduate studies at the National University of Singapore and as a Research Associate at the Institute of Conflict, Cooperation, and Security (ICCS), University of Birmingham.
Mr. Francisco Santos-Jara Padron
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AVAILABLE LANGUAGES
English
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EXPLORE THE POLICY BRIEF
Published March 2024
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