Webinar: Economic Modeling for a Polycrisis World - Introducing UNDP Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for Policy Scenario Analysis

Date: 9 June 2026
Time: 9:00 – 10:00 am (EST) / 3:00 – 4:00 pm (CET)
 

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1. Background and Context

When a trade shock hits, a carbon tax is introduced, or a government adjusts its fiscal stance, the headline numbers — GDP growth, export volumes, budget balances — tell only part of the story. The questions that matter most for policymakers are often invisible in the aggregates: which households lose purchasing power? Which workers face unemployment? Do the gains reach the bottom quintile, or do they concentrate at the top?

The UNDP CGE Model is a global, people-centered analytical tool purpose-built to answer these types of questions. Covering 125 countries and building on the GTAP 12 database. It moves beyond representative-agent frameworks by disaggregating every simulation across five household income quintiles, four sex-disaggregated labour categories, 27 sectors, and key cross-border flows including remittances, aid, and foreign investment income.

At a time of rapidly evolving trade rules, mounting climate commitments, and constrained fiscal space, this tool equips UNDP country offices and governments with a rigorous, yet actionable platform to:

• Quantify who gains and who loses from trade, industrial, and climate policies — with distributional results disaggregated by income group, gender, and skill level;

• Estimate poverty and inequality impacts for any configurable poverty threshold, linking macro shocks directly to headcounts and poverty rates;

• Assess cross-country spillovers and identify where global shocks concentrate their impacts — especially in LDCs, fragile states, and small island economies;

• Design revenue-recycling and compensatory packages that protect vulnerable households while advancing structural transformation and climate goals.

Developed as an analytical instrument to simulate policy scenarios and actions for advancing the UNDP's Strategic Plan 2026–2029, the model is designed as a living platform — built to evolve with new data, policy questions, and country needs, and to support collaborative analytical work between UNDP offices, national governments, and research partners.

2. Learning objectives 

By the end of the session, participants will have a high-level understanding of:

• The GTAP data foundation — including what the database covers, why some countries are not currently included, and what this means for global and country-level analysis.
• The UNDP CGE model architecture — including how the model captures economy-wide linkages, household impacts by income quintile, gendered labour markets, social protection channels, and other UNDP-relevant features.
• How the model can inform policy questions — including trade disruptions, commodity price shocks, labour market reforms, social protection options, and other development scenarios.
• How the model is being used in practice — drawing on country examples to highlight opportunities, enabling factors, and lessons from early applications.
• How countries and partners can engage going forward — including planned rollout, entry points for collaboration, and opportunities to adapt the model to national policy priorities.
   

3. Target Audience

The conversation is designed for UNDP national economists, policy advisors, and country office staff thinking about policy coherence and system thinking with the goal of advancing prosperity and well-being, inequality, and inclusive growth. No background in economic modelling is needed to participate and benefit from the discussion.

4. Draft Agenda