By 2050, 78 million metric tons of solar panels will be retired: How China is innovating in recycling to close the critical mineral loop

In the past decade, the production of clean energy technologies such as solar panels, wind turbines, and lithium-ion batteries has surged, driving down costs. This has accelerated the transition to lower-carbon electricity and made electric vehicles more accessible, crucial for decarbonizing transportation. However, as global climate change efforts intensify, a pressing concern emerges: the potential for substantial waste from these technologies and their valuable materials to end up in landfills. Failing to reuse and recycle this waste could lead to severe environmental and social consequences and missed opportunities to access critical raw materials like lithium and cobalt, often extracted in harmful ways. While the volume of discarded solar panels, turbine blades, and batteries is currently modest, it's rapidly increasing. To address these challenges, expanding recycling capacity in anticipation of clean technology growth in the coming decades is imperative. 

For instance, around 8 million metric tons of solar panels are projected to be retired globally by 2030. The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates a potential tenfold rise in photovoltaic (PV) waste by 2050, reaching 78 million metric tons. Additionally, the IEA forecasts a fourfold surge in mineral demand for clean energy technologies by 2040 under its Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS). 

China, leading in renewable equipment manufacturing, has been significantly expanding its wind and solar production capabilities. The country aims to achieve 1,200 gigawatts (GW) of wind and solar capacity by 2030, up from 758 GW at the end of the previous year. China is expected to retire a substantial volume of solar panels, potentially exceeding 13.5 million metric tons by 2050, surpassing other major solar-producing nations. Responding to this, the country is actively developing a comprehensive recycling system for wind turbines and solar panels, targeting a "mature" system by the decade's end. 

Recycling and repurposing materials from solar panels alone could yield significant economic benefits. Recoverable raw materials from these panels could be valued at $450 million by 2030 and potentially exceed $15 billion by 2050. Moreover, the recycling process has the capacity to generate employment opportunities, offering a means to partially offset the job losses in the fossil fuel sectors and facilitating a just transition. While recycling and reuse would not entirely replace mining and processing, they can substantially reduce the demand for these critical materials, fostering a sustainable approach to clean energy technology growth.

Read the full SEH Bulletin 4.