Risk Intelligence
UNDP's Work on Disaster and Climate Risk Intelligence
Current data-based approaches to global threat and risk management often fall into two pitfalls. The first is the view that risk stems from a single hazardous event, which blinds us to the reality of multiple, concurrent threats, emerging global dangers, and slower-moving development trends that together compound uncertainty and drive up future risk. The second, closely related, is an over-reliance on hindsight: managing today's decisions by looking only at what has already happened. Breaking away from both requires equipping risk management actors with the most relevant information and data to analyze multidimensional risks: data informed by hindsight from the past, foresight of multiple changing futures, and insight into present-day systemic risk, so that policymakers can stay resilient and make informed decisions.
This is the purpose of risk intelligence. Risk intelligence integrates data, analytics, foresight, and contextual knowledge to generate actionable insights that inform decisions. By bringing past, present, and future-looking data on complex risk to light through comprehensive risk analysis and digital tools, it enables UNDP to support governments and partners in translating complex risk information into practical decision intelligence: building future-oriented policies and initiatives that support risk-informed development, as well as crisis prevention, preparedness, response and recovery, and that address the fundamental barriers stifling sustainable development. The Disaster Risk Reduction Team serves as the global anchor for this service line, providing policy and programming guidance in close collaboration with central bureaux, regional hubs, and UNDP Country Offices.
UNDP's risk intelligence service line supports countries to strengthen data-driven risk governance, institutional capacities, systems, data protection policy, and standard operating procedures for data and information collection, analysis, dissemination, sharing and decision-making. UNDP leverages digitalization, AI, and data science to help countries build integrated national data ecosystems, enabling disaster loss and damage tracking, multi-dimensional risk assessment, and prospective risk analysis through modelling, scenario planning and foresight. By linking advanced analytics with local knowledge and risk perception, UNDP supports the development of next-generation risk solutions while prioritizing those most vulnerable. The service also generates actionable risk intelligence for financing, helping governments align budgets, resource mobilization and investments with risk insights and identify gaps in resilience financing. Together, these efforts reinforce risk-informed development, adaptation to evolving risks (including those driven by climate change), as well as crisis prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery.
Global Focal Points
Frontier Technology Radar for Disaster Risk Reduction (FTR4DRR)
INFORM Subnational Models
Damage and loss tracking systems
UNDP supports the development of national data and information systems, with a focus on harmonizing data collection tools, strengthening technological infrastructure (geospatial tools, digital technologies, and AI, etc.), strengthening data governance and institutional capacity building.
UNDP applications: Burkina Faso | Chad | Mali Mauritania | Niger | Nigeria | Senegal | Nepal | Indonesia | Maldives | Lebanon | Mauritius | Uganda
Multi-dimensional risk identification and assessment
UNDP assists countries in conducting comprehensive, evidence-based risk identification and assessment processes to strengthen risk governance and inform national risk profiling. UNDP supports countries in anticipating emerging risk landscapes through future scenario modelling using data science and AI, as well as foresight methodologies. UNDP helps governments move beyond reactive crisis management towards anticipatory governance and long-term resilience.
UNDP applications: DDRRMM | DSVI | INFORM Subnational Risk Model being rolled out in Malawi and Madagascar | Indonesia’s inaRISK Platform | Process Quick Start Guide | Choosing Your Tomorrows | Foresight Playbook | Future of Development
Digital maturity assessments for integrated national data ecosystems
UNDP enables secure data sharing and the use of analytics and visualization to better understand systemic risks and inform solutions through foresight and systems thinking, supported by capacity-building packages that help countries adopt and integrate digitalization coherently into risk analysis and decision-making.
UNDP applications: Data and digital maturity for disaster data systems
Risk intelligence for financing disaster and climate resilience
UNDP assists in integrating disaster risk data with public expenditure analysis to generate actionable risk intelligence on budgets, spending, and exposure. This enables governments to identify financing gaps and prioritize investments in critical sectors such as infrastructure, urban development, and land-use planning. UNDP assists countries in identifying and mobilizing a range of financing instruments, including climate finance, inclusive insurance, anticipatory financing, contingency financing, blended finance, and public financial management reforms, while supporting the development of integrated DRR and climate finance strategies and costed implementation plans tailored to national priorities, institutional capacities, and risk profiles to enhance financial resilience and enable sustained investments in prevention, preparedness, adaptation, response, and resilient recovery.
UNDP applications: Cambodia’s CAMDIDCPEIR for Burkina Faso and Niger, | Integrating DRR and Climate Change Adaptation into Development
Artificial Intelligence and digital innovation for risk intelligence
UNDP supports innovation and learning using AI, data, and digital tools to develop next-generation risk intelligence solutions, linking analytics, risk perception, and local knowledge to enable more informed risk awareness.
UNDP applications: Beyond Drought | DSVI|Frontier Technology Radar | Indonesia’s STEP-A | RAPIDA | iVerify|DPI | AI Unipod (UNDP Nigeria)
Examples
Global and cross-country
- Digital Guide for Resilience - Disaster Risk Reduction
- Data and Digital Maturity for Disaster Risk Reduction in 13 countries, e.g., Sri Lanka, Arab states and Jordan
- Global Centre for Disaster Statistics (GCDS)
- Data and Digital Maturity for Disaster Data Systems
- DDRRMM White Paper
- DSVI – PDNA online training
- Process Quick Start Guide – Hindsight, Insight, Foresight
- Choosing Your Tomorrows
- Foresight Playbook
- Future of Development
- Beyond Drought
- Frontier Technology Radar
- RAPIDA
- iVerify
- DPI – digital technologies for resilience, Colombia
- Integrating DRR and Climate Change Adaptation into Development
Regional
- Asia and the Pacific: DX4Resilience – Digital solutions for the most vulnerable groups identified through mapping and analysis
Country-specific
- Bosnia and Herzegovina: Multi-hazard Disaster Risk Analysis System (DRAS)
- Burkina Faso: DCPEIR – Disaster and Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (with Niger)
- Cambodia: CAMDI disaster loss database
- Indonesia: InaRISK – national disaster loss and damage system; STEP-A (inaRISK2)
- Jordan: Digital Maturity Assessment
- Lao PDR: Lao Disaster Information System (LaoDi)
- Lebanon: DesInventar disaster loss database
- Madagascar: INFORM Subnational Risk Model (with Malawi)
- Malawi: INFORM Subnational Risk Model (with Madagascar)
- Maldives: Drones for Resilience; Strengthening National and Subnational Capacity for Sustainable Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Maldives; Disaster loss and damage statistics – NDMA
- Mauritius: DesInventar disaster loss database
- Nepal: BIPAD Portal
- Niger: DCPEIR – Disaster and Climate Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (with Burkina Faso)
- Nigeria: AI Unipod
- Sri Lanka: Digital Maturity Assessment
- Thailand: DRM CPEIR for Lao PDR, Thailand, Viet Nam
- Timor Leste: TERS (Timor Leste) - Timor Leste Emergency Response System
- Uganda: National Risk and Vulnerability Atlas; DesInventar disaster loss database
- Papua New Guinea Leads The Pacific With First Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Maturity Assessment